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Global Bond Sell-Off Intensifies as Market Prices In Three More Fed Hikes

Astron Team · 09/24/2026 · 3 min read

The government bond sell-off gained momentum on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield stood near 5.12% after climbing 15 basis points the day before, its biggest daily jump since the April 2025 tariff turmoil. The five-year yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007, after an auction with weak demand.

The market is now fully pricing in three more 0.25 percentage point Fed hikes over the next year, which would take US rates from the current 3.75%-4% range to 4.5%-4.75%. Some are already hedging against a fourth hike. A resilient economy and expensive energy threaten to keep inflation above the 2% target.

The move wasn't limited to the US: bonds in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and emerging markets also fell, and the average global government debt yield approached 4%. The dollar stood near its highest level since July, Asian stock markets fell about 0.6%, and mainland Chinese stocks dropped 1.5%.

Among commodities, gold fell 0.2% to around $4,280 an ounce, and Brent returned to $103 a barrel. Since Treasuries serve as a benchmark for mortgages, corporate credit, and stock valuations, upcoming inflation and growth data will show whether this shift in rates holds.

Source: Traders Union.