Stocks

SpaceX After the IPO: Understanding the Valuation and Risks

Astron Team · 09/24/2026 · 4 min read

SpaceX went from being just one of the world's most-watched private companies to becoming a publicly traded stock. According to the final prospectus filed with the American regulator, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. priced its IPO at $135 per share, offered 555,555,555 Class A shares, and began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, raising nearly $75 billion gross — an unusual amount even for large-scale IPOs.

The first trading session was equally dramatic: shares opened at $150 and closed at $160.95, up about 19% from the IPO price. For those following the stock, the relevant question isn't whether SpaceX is an interesting company — it's what's already priced into the stock, what could move it next, and where the risks are easiest to underestimate. The data below reflects the IPO period and the following days; it may have already changed, and nothing here is a buy or sell recommendation.

Why this stock is hard to value

SpaceX operates simultaneously in several markets: reusable rocket launches, satellite internet (Starlink), government and defense contracts, commercial space infrastructure, and, after its combination with the artificial intelligence company xAI described in the prospectus, also AI and computing infrastructure. Someone buying the stock isn't just buying a rocket company — they're buying a publicly listed version of a business tied to space, connectivity, data, AI infrastructure, government demand, and its founder's execution track record.

This makes the stock hard to fit into a traditional multiple. Comparisons with aerospace companies don't fully explain the business. Comparisons with telecom operators don't fully explain Starlink. Comparisons with AI infrastructure companies may be overly optimistic if losses and capital spending stay high.

The central tension: scale versus loss

According to disclosed data, SpaceX recorded $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and a loss of nearly $5 billion in the same year. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported combined revenue of $4.694 billion across its space, connectivity, and AI segments, with a pre-tax loss of $4.270 billion. The company has scale, rare assets, and a growth story in Starlink, but it also has heavy spending, losses tied to its AI expansion, and a valuation that already bakes in much of the expected future success.

A governance detail that can't be ignored

The Class A shares sold to the public carry one vote per share; the Class B shares, controlled by the founder, carry ten votes each. After the IPO, the founder held about 82.4% of the company's voting power. This means that buying SPCX shares gives you economic participation in the company, but practically no influence over its strategic decisions. SpaceX is, in practice, a controlled company — and this is a governance risk factor that needs to be part of the analysis, regardless of how well the company is executing at the moment.

What tends to be watched after an IPO of this size

Analysts and traders who follow this type of stock tend to watch a few specific points in the weeks following the debut:

• Volume after the first week — an IPO's volume tends to be artificially high at first; the real test is whether it holds up once the initial attention cools off.
• Starlink's growth and margins — since it resembles a recurring subscription business more than one-off launches, Starlink's performance tends to anchor much of the long-term thesis.
• Launch cadence and Starship rocket milestones — technical successes tend to support sentiment; delays, failures, or regulatory issues tend to weigh on it.
• Exposure to AI infrastructure — it can expand upside potential, but it also increases capital intensity and the risk of losses, since this segment is expensive and competitive.
• Future share supply — the end of lock-up periods for early investors and employees can shift the balance between buyers and sellers in the market.

How to think about this type of stock without getting caught up in the hype

The first mistake is usually treating a famous company as a simple trade. Fame generates liquidity and attention, but it doesn't eliminate risk. Newly listed stocks can move violently because price discovery, in the first few weeks, is still messy — some investors are building long-term positions, others are just passing along the allocation they received at the IPO, and retail investors sometimes chase the news after most of the move has already happened.

A more careful approach clearly separates what's already disclosed fact — revenue, loss, governance structure, offering size — from what's still an expectation about the company's future. The figures cited here reflect the time of the IPO and may already be outdated. This text is for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice — trading newly listed stocks involves elevated risk of capital loss, and any decision should factor in up-to-date data and each investor's risk profile.